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NSFW is basically just anything that you would not want your boss to catch you looking at while at work. When you take that into consideration, NSFW should be any kind of porn, nudity/genitalia, extreme gore, and (debatably) drugs and profanity. That's pretty much the guideline on most websites (though I might be missing a few things).
Tumblr though just seems to be flagging anything without any rhyme or reason. As mentioned previously, a lot of the stuff they're marking as explicit content is perfectly harmless. So no, there doesn't seem to be a guideline. Or at least if there is, they're doing a really poor job of enforcing it.
edit: I got like super ninja'd and somehow didn't realize there was a second page to this thread lmao
Oof. That sucks. Hopefully they find a better way to solve the problem. And why isn't there a porn bot blocker? I've had porn bots follow me on Pinterest so I just blocked them. Why can't Tumblr do that?